UNAIDS Researchers Release Preliminary Findings of Study on HIV/AIDS' Future Impact in Africa

UNAIDS researchers at a seminar at the London School of Economics and Political Science recently presented preliminary findings of a two-year study on the possible impact of HIV/AIDS in Africa over the next two decades, VOANews reports (Drudge, VOANews, 4/30). AIDS in Africa: Scenarios for the Future, a joint project with the World Bank, U.N. Development Programme, African Development Bank and the Economic Commission for Africa, will use Shell International's Global Business Environment technique of "scenario building" (UNAIDS Web site [1], 5/4). The researchers have consulted a "broad spectrum" of Africans affected by the epidemic in building the scenarios, according to project spokesperson Betty Amailuk (VOANews, 4/30). The scenario approach will examine the impact of and response to HIV/AIDS in Africa in relation to social development, poverty reduction, economic development, political stability and other issues and explore "what the future might look like and the likely challenges of living in it," according the UNAIDS Web site (UNAIDS Web site [2], 5/4). The participants said they have developed three preliminary scenarios with the working titles "Whirlpool," "Africa Takes a Stand" and "Africa Overcomes." The "Whirlpool" scenario explores the possibility of denial, antidevelopment, overwhelmed systems and "vicious spirals," UNAIDS researcher Patrick Noack said. The second scenario, "Africa Takes a Stand," would involve containment of the epidemic, state building and broader development, Noack said. The third scenario, "Africa Overcomes," would involve cooperation and coordination, development and an end to the epidemic, Noack said. UNAIDS plans to reveal the final project results in September, according to VOANews (VOANews, 4/30).

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