AIDS-Related Death Rate in South Africa "Falling"

The rate of increase in mortality among South African young adults has slowed, which two leading experts attribute to the public provision of antiretroviral drugs. South Africa's ARV rollout began in 2004.

The governmental Statistics South Africa (SSA) mortality report, released online Thursday, showed mortality among people ages 30-34 rose 17 percent between 2002 and 2003. An increase of 5.9 percent was registered in 2004, and 1.7 percent for 2005. Mortality declined 0.3 percent in 2006. Similar trends were seen for people ages 25-29 and ages 35-59. Total deaths increased from 593,337 in 2002 to 607,184 in 2006.

Statistics South Africa reported that the data provide "indirect evidence that HIV may be contributing to the increase in mortality among prime-aged adults, given the increase in the number of deaths due to associated disease."

TB was the leading cause of death, followed by pneumonia and flu. HIV was the ninth-leading cause of death listed on death certificates submitted to the home affairs department.

Two experts criticized the report for not elaborating on the slowing mortality rate.

The good news was "buried" in the report, said Professor David Bourne, an epidemiologist at the University of Cape Town (UCT). "Why isn't it being shouted from the rooftops?" "AIDS-related mortality is massive, but it's not tackled in the report," he said.

"It is worrying that very little is offered by way of interpretation of the results," said Professor Rob Dorrington, a UCT demographer. "The pattern and trend are uniquely associated with deaths due to AIDS and yet [SSA] seems to be avoiding, almost studiously, even suggesting that this is an explanation."

SSA's job is to publish mortality figures, not interpret them, said Maletela Tuoane-Nkhasi, the agency's manager for births and deaths.

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