AIDS Now Leading Killer of Young Adults in Ethiopia

Nearly 70 percent of deaths occurring annually in Ethiopian men and women ages 20 to 54 are due to AIDS, according to a survey conducted in the capital city of Addis Ababa. "This would translate to 7,000 to 9,000 adults," said Dr. Eduard J. Sanders of the Ethiopian Health and Nutritional Research Institute. The study, "Mortality Impact of AIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia," was published in AIDS (2003;17(8):1209-1216).

In poverty-stricken Ethiopia, which lacks reliable national birth and death records, Sanders and colleagues set out to estimate the number and various causes of death in Addis Ababa -- a city of approximately 2.6 million -- between 1987 and 2001. The researchers conducted the study by checking registries and interviewing staff at a sampling of five of the 70 official burial sites located in the city. In February 2001, Sanders and colleagues began surveillance, which is currently ongoing, of all 70 burial sites.

The researchers discovered that since the mid-1980s the number of people ages 25 to 49 who had been buried increased dramatically. In particular, there was an approximate five-fold increase in deaths among men and women ages 35 to 39 between 1984 and 2001. According to the study, much of the increase was due to AIDS, and young men and women in the city now have a roughly 18 percent chance of dying from HIV before the age of 60. The report calculated that a 15-year-old boy's chance of dying before age 60 increased from 23 percent in 1984 to almost 42 percent by 2001, largely due to AIDS. For girls, the probability increased from 17 percent to 35 percent during the same time.

Sanders noted that since the researchers are measuring the impact of new HIV infections over the prior decade the continuation of burial surveillance will be important for a few more years. "The project will contribute to a better understanding of the impact of HIV/AIDS on society and will help in the planning for other HIV/AIDS public health interventions," said Sanders. The Amsterdam-based AIDS Foundation is currently funding the Addis Ababa project through 2006.

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