Statistics Dispute Inflames South Africa AIDS Debate

On Monday, the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), an influential AIDS activist group, fired a broadside at journalist Rian Malan after he wrote in Britain's Spectator magazine that "Africa Isn't Dying of AIDS." TAC National Director Nathan Geffen distributed a letter to journalists accusing Malan of relying on "pseudo-science" to become a hit among AIDS denialists.

Malan, citing what he claimed were statistics showing HIV prevalence in Africa is less severe than feared, said AIDS activists were "doom merchants" and fanatics. He accused officials of deliberately exaggerating the epidemic to pull in aid money.

Both sides agree that accurate statistics on South Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic are hard to come by. UNAIDS estimates that almost 30 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are infected, with more than 5 million HIV-positive among South Africa's 45 million people.

A debated study this month purported to show that UNAIDS and World Health Organization estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Kenya are inflated, cutting the projected number of Kenyan adults with HIV from 3 million to 1 million. UNAIDS said the conclusions were unfounded and stood by its original numbers.

Malan's article questioned established methods of estimating HIV prevalence, which rely on extrapolations from tests of pregnant women at medical clinics. He cited South African studies that appear to discredit earlier forecasts of increasing HIV/AIDS prevalence and death rates. He said it was probable that "computer models are seriously overestimating HIV prevalence."

TAC dismissed Malan's conclusions, offering its own evidence of high HIV/AIDS prevalence and death rates, and accusing Malan of manipulating the numbers to prove his case.

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