Extrapolating from a 2004 study of pregnant women attending antenatal clinics, South Africa's Department of Health said that more than 6.5 million South Africans now have HIV, up from 5.6 million people infected at the end of 2003. The new figures are in sharp contrast to the governmental Statistics South Africa study released in May that estimated 4.5 million South Africans had the virus.

Extrapolations from antenatal clinic data form the basis for most estimates of HIV prevalence in Africa. However, the method has been criticized in some African countries for exaggerating the HIV/AIDS threat in Africa.

In the Department of Health study, 29.5 percent of pregnant women surveyed nationwide had HIV, up from 27.9 percent in 2003. In KwaZulu-Natal, HIV prevalence was more than 40 percent among pregnant women.

The department acknowledged that the new estimate assumes HIV prevalence is the same for all pregnant women as for those who visited the antenatal clinics, and that HIV prevalence is the same for women ages 15-49 as for the antenatal clinic testers.

Professor Rob Dorrington, head of the Center for Actuarial Science at the University of Cape Town, called the department's new estimate "undoubtedly too high." "Is it any wonder the public is confused when the same government offers estimates that differ by between 2 million and 2.5 million?" he asked.

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