Figures released Monday by the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) show an estimated 5.2 million people, or 11 percent of the nation's population, are HIV-infected. The estimate is lower than the health department's most recent number (6.3 million) and higher than the estimate put out by Statistics South Africa (4.5 million), but in any case the researchers said it describes an epidemic that is "massive" and growing.

According to the ASSA report:

• There were approximately 530,000 new HIV infections and 340,000 AIDS deaths between mid-2004 and mid-2005.
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• The epidemic has cut life expectancy to 51 years.

• While 125,000-130,000 South Africans were receiving antiretrovirals by mid-2005, another 520,000 people need the drugs but are not getting them.

• By 2010, it is predicted 5.8 million South Africans will be HIV-positive.

• The proportion of those ages 15-49 who were HIV-positive stood at 26 percent in KwaZulu-Natal; 22 percent in Gauteng, Free State and Mpumalanga; 20 percent in North West; 17 percent in Limpopo; 11 percent in Northern Cape; and 8 percent in Western Cape.

Professor Rob Dorrington of ASSA said that while the latest estimate suggests the epidemic is leveling off from last year's figure of 5 million, this is not because new infections are declining but rather because the number of those dying is approaching the number becoming infected.

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