New AIDS Nightmare Looms for Gay Men: Study

Since 2001, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has risen about 1.9 percent per year in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia, University of Pittsburg researchers told the 16th International AIDS Conference in Toronto. Without a return to safe sex or an unforeseen medical discovery, these infection rates will saturate the population as it ages, the review of studies presented by Ron Stall suggested.

In 2001, HIV affected about one in 12 20-year-old MSM in these countries. The projected rate of infection could be one in four by the time they are in their 30s, researchers estimated. By age 60, 58 percent could be infected.

Among African-American MSM, the rate of new infections is now 4 percent among those ages 15-22, and 15 percent among ages 23-29, warned Stall. At an average increase in new infections of 4 percent per year, three-quarters of those ages 23-29 would be infected by age 50. Calling this incidence rate "almost unbelievable," Stall said, "African-American men who have sex with men suffer among the highest HIV prevalence rates of any risk group in the world."

High rates of HIV diagnoses among MSM were also seen in 35 states CDC used to analyze HIV data. Growing methamphetamine use and complacency are partly to blame for the increase, said Dr. Ronald Valdiserri, deputy director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, STD and TB Prevention. "In the United States, 5 percent [of the HIV budget] is spent on prevention," said Valdiserri. "America is more interested in treating this disease than preventing it. We can't treat our way out of this epidemic, even as a rich country.

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