United Nations Predicts Chinese AIDS Epidemic

China is on the brink of an "explosive" AIDS epidemic and could have 10 million infected people by 2010, according to a study released Thursday by the United Nations Theme Group on HIV/AIDS in China (UNTGC). The report urged the Chinese government to spend more on education and prevention, and complained that many Chinese officials lack commitment to fighting AIDS.

The country is "on the verge of a catastrophe that could result in unimaginable suffering, economic loss and social devastation," said the report, "HIV/AIDS: China's Titanic Peril." It said data collected last year showed 30,736 people were infected with HIV, 1,594 had AIDS and 684 people had died from AIDS-related illnesses. But, it said, the true number of people with HIV was far higher, between 800,000 and 1.5 million -- most of them infected through intravenous drug use or poor sanitation in China's blood buying industry.

"Once you have a certain concentration of it, it will hit the general population," said Siri Tellier, chair of UNTGC. Heterosexual and homosexual intercourse are fast growing means of infection, the study warned. In April, state media reported that intravenous drug use accounted for 68 percent of infections, while blood selling accounted for 9.7 percent.

Local officials, reluctant to admit that their areas have a sex or drug trade, have harassed activists who have tried to raise public alarm about the disease. Lack of knowledge makes China vulnerable to the disease, the report said. Other problems include poverty and lack of access to condoms. The sheer size of the country makes education and treatment difficult. The virus spreads differently in different regions, said Dr. Emile Fox, the advisor in China for UNAIDS.

HIV trends in China are estimated through tests administered at national and provincial levels on vulnerable population groups, such as prostitutes, drug users, pregnant women and people with STDs, the study said.

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