AIDS Epidemic Will Hurt Russian Economy, World Bank Official Says

Russia's economy could suffer substantially in the next couple of decades if the country doesn't take steps soon to stem the spread of HIV, World Bank experts said Wednesday. World Bank analysts and Russia's Federal AIDS Center worked out forecasts of economic damage through 2020 based on current rates of HIV infection. They predicted that the country's economy would shrink by 10.5 percent by 2020 if no preventative measures were taken, because of the decline in the available workforce and the costs of treating people with HIV. Investment would also shrink by as much as 14.5 percent.

Under optimistic projections, 21,000 Russians will die a month of AIDS as of 2020 if preventative measures aren't taken, and the number of Russians infected with HIV will reach 5.4 million in 2020, said Christof Ruehl, the senior economist at the World Bank's Russia office.

A total of 194,000 HIV cases have been registered in Russia as of Wednesday, the head of Russia's AIDS Center, Vadim Pokrovsky, said. That was up from 177,000 in December. He and other AIDS officials have warned that the real scale of HIV infection is much larger because just 10 to 15 percent of Russia's population has been tested. HIV in Russia has been associated almost exclusively with intravenous drug use.

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