South African Government Casts Doubt on AIDS Report, but Agrees to Its Release

The South African government on Wednesday cast doubt on the findings of a report, which it commissioned, that claims AIDS accounted for a quarter of all deaths in the nation last year. The Medical Research Council's (MRC) report said AIDS was responsible for 40 percent of adult deaths last year, and it estimated that AIDS will kill between 5 million and 7 million South Africans by 2010.

The government, which has been widely criticized for its handling of the AIDS crisis, had hoped to delay release of the report until December. But a copy was leaked to the media after President Thabo Mbeki ordered a review of health spending on the basis of 1995 statistics showing that AIDS accounted for only 2.2 percent of deaths in the nation.

Joel Netshitenzhe, government spokesperson, said concerns remain about the research's methodology and its findings. South Africa only monitors HIV infection rates at free ante-natal clinics, which the government said was not a representative sample. "The only recourse we have at present regarding estimating the extent of the epidemic is through demographic modeling," said a government statement.

The main problem with the MRC's statistical model, the government said, was in its assumptions about the probability of HIV transmission. "For example, in Uganda, a much lower probability of transmission is used for their AIDS death calculations," the statement said. Further studies are planned; activists are accusing the government of collecting endless data while the epidemic runs increasingly out of control.

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