C.D.C. reports substantial drop in AIDS deaths
First decline in annual mortality rate since 1981
For the first time since the Centers for Disease Control began to tally deaths from AIDS-related causes, the death
toll has begun to fall. The decline in overall mortality for the first six months of 1996, compared to the first
six months of 1995, was 13%. The death rate fell in all regions of the country and in all risk categories except
persons exposed to HIV through heterosexual contact.
Race, region, and risk factors all influenced the size of the reductions in mortality: The largest reductions were
seen among non-Hispanic whites (21%) and native Americans (32%); the smallest, among non-Hispanic blacks (2%).
Mortality declined 15% in the Northeast and 16% in the West, but only 8% in the South. Among men who have sex with men,
deaths dropped 18%, versus 6% among injection-drug users.
The only increase in mortality was recorded among those whose chief risk factor is heterosexual contact, where the
death rate rose 3%. Significantly, this was the only risk group that experienced a large increase in the incidence of
OIs in 1995, a finding predictive of heightened mortality.
These findings confirm a trend that New York City health officials reported earlier this year at the 4th Conference on
Retroviruses in Washington, D.C. Although the overall reduction in mortality announced by the C.D.C. is not as great
as the 30% decline noted by Hamburg et al., the national figures effectively eliminate concerns that the improvement in
survival seen in New York City was due to incomplete reporting or some sort of statistical anomaly.
The Office of AIDS Surveillance of the New York City Department of Health detected this trend first because the city
processes death certificate information itself -- instead of forwarding that data to a state agency, as virtually every
other large city does.
Many factors are thought to have contributed to the sudden, sharp decline in AIDS deaths across the nation. Chief
among these factors are wider and better prophylaxis against the most common AIDS-related OIs, and the advent of the
protease inhibitors, introduced in 1995. Other contributory factors include better access to care, better education of
infected populations, and greater availability of more potent antiretroviral combinations. These variables would
explain why mortality differs by race, region, and risk factor.
Although the AIDS death rate is declining, the overall case load in increasing (Figure), and HIV infection remains the
leading cause of death among Americans between the ages of 25 and 44, accounting for 19% of all the deaths in this age
group. If this trend holds, it will become increasingly important to monitor HIV infections, rather than AIDS deaths,
as a means of tracking the epidemic, devising prevention strategies, and improving clinical management of the disease.
Chiasson M, Berenson L, Li W, Schwartz S, Mojica B, Hamburg M. Declining AIDS mortality in New York City. 4th
Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, Washington, D.C., January 22-26, 1997. Abstract.