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Medical News

Developing a Predictive Model to Prioritize Human Immunodeficiency Virus Partner Notification in North Carolina

February 27, 2012

In North Carolina, disease intervention specialists (DIS) have less time to conduct partner notification activities because of competing responsibilities and growing case loads due to expanded HIV testing. In the current study, the researchers developed a model to predict undiagnosed HIV infection in sexual partners in order to prioritize DIS interviews.

Using DIS records of HIV-infected persons reported in two North Carolina surveillance regions from Jan. 1, 2003 to Dec. 31, 2007, the team abstracted demographic, behavioral and partnership data. A predictive model and risk scores among newly diagnosed persons and their partners were developed using multiple logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. Sensitivities and specificities of risk scores at varying cutoffs were used to examine algorithm performance.

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