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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS?
      #100595 - 06/30/04 04:06 PM

I've written what is currently the only computer application solely dedicated to the mathematical analysis of HIV. It's called HIV pathogenesis modeler, and can be downloaded at:
http://www.agmh.org/softw.htm

While using the SI model in the program, I came to the realization that the cocktail treatment greatly increases the infected patients life-span, which allows them to infect more people, while the same treatment does little or nothing to mitigate the horizontal infectivity factor {B}. So usage of the cocktail is exacerbating the spread of AIDS.

SI model:
dS/dt = s-uS-BSI
dI/dt=BSI-cI

We need to be honest about this since several African nations now have 20% infected, and could face the extinction
of their adult populations.

I believe an investigation is warranted over this. How could
the pharmaceutical industry have overlooked this since 1981?

jacksonrichard@sbcglobal.net

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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100619 - 06/30/04 11:51 PM

This is just an addendum to my last message. Please don't label me a Nazi who is trying to institute death camps for HIV infected people. If you want my opinion, currently I support a massive [global] testing program to identify the infected, and to provide education and condoms. At the moment, however, I believe that extending the life of AIDS patients without mitigating the horizontal infectivity factor will accelerate the spread of the disease through populations. This is apparent logically, and in mathematical analysis. Surprisingly there is little to no evidence suggesting that B is mitigated by triple therapy. I guess our drug industry should explain this to us. Mitigation means that if we provide drugs to patients, that we must [at the same time] have some means of blocking horizontal transfer. Without identifying all infected this is not possible.

African nations [and others] need to know the truth however, and I don't believe the drug industry will tell them the truth. I have my reasons for stating this. The viral biochemistry and kinetics determines what treatments are possible, and we must adapt to this.





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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100621 - 07/01/04 05:41 AM

Your theory in hypothesis may have validity, but not in the real world. Do you have proof of this from the medical profession, HIV researchers, etc? AIDS deaths in this country have declined considerably since inhibitors became
available in 1997. That is fact. Yes, it increases the lifespan of the majority of cocktail users. HOWEVER, you are ASSUMING these people ARE infecting others...it is fact that the majority of new cases are people infected by others who are also recently infected. Not every infected person on the cocktails is going to abstain or have safe sex, but those I know that are infected either do abstain or use condoms, I know them well enough not to doubt them. And from legitimate HIV sources...Health Dept, etc. that the newest cases infection source is just as likely to be from recently infected partners...proximity in age range alone explains that, not to mention the recently infected are probably not on inhibitors yet either, so your theory re transmission modes is flawed...in 2 ways there, correct? Where are you getting your information? Maybe in 3rd world countries, hypothesis on my end is: since condoms, HIV information, etc. is/are not available or very limited, those infected are then obviously probably infecting others by not practicing safe sex...but the cocktails are in fact not available in the majority of those countries. So consequentially, infected persons are dying at a much higher rate than those living in this country that are on cocktails. Right? This is fact. Sorry, your numbers don't add up. Maybe a second opinion is in order....check with a reliable HIV source and see what the facts are. Please!

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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100622 - 07/01/04 05:47 AM

In some cases, the inhibitors suppress the viral load, in fact,
to an undetectable (<500 copies) level. Although the medical profession advises this does not mean infection CAN'T occur and safe sex is still suggested, the profession acknowledges that the rates of transmission can be lower because of this factor. That may explain why AIDS deaths here have decreased since advent of the cocktail.....

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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100709 - 07/02/04 03:02 PM

I am a realiable source. I've been studying the kinetics of
the spread of HIV in Kenya, and have predicted that a climax
will be reached in 9 years caused by the high death rates of the infected. If, however, the horizontal infectivity factor isn't mitigated and the life spans are increased, then I can show that the entire adult population will be infected. I didn't make up this math. It's standard epidemiological equations.

I suppose you are ready to show me some epidemiological
research that will proove a significant reduction in B, right?
Send it to my email and I will review it. If wrong, I'll retract my statements. I just don't want your opinion however. I want
to see biochemical measurements and good statistics.

jacksonrichard@sbcglobal.net

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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100711 - 07/02/04 03:21 PM

Again, I don't want your opinion that because viral load <500 that this is proof that B is significantly mitigated. I want to see actual biochemical research that has measured this. There are other factors of course - such as blood cell transfer, and the rate such cells are killed in the recipient.

I am [now] a competent mathematical biologist, and have predicted Kenya will reach an HIV climax in 9 years. If, however B isn't significantly mitigated and the infected life span is increased, then the kinetic analysis indicates the entire adult population will become infected. This mathematics
are more accurate than anyones belief as to what will happen.

I am not emotional about this. I'm working to find a solution,
but am brutally honest.

If you beleive there is good evidence that B is mitigated,
then send this to me at:
jacksonrichard@sbcglobal.net

and I will retract my claim.

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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100712 - 07/02/04 03:29 PM

Again, I don't want your concept that because viral load is < 500 that this is proof that B is significantly mitigated. There are other factors such as blood cell transfer and the rate such cells are killed in the recipient. I want to see actual research. My mathematical analysis {see http://www.agmh.org} is scientific proof. I've predicted that Kenya will reach an AIDS climax in 9 years - when the high death rates of the infected will reach an equilibrium. The math shows that if the patients life span is increased and B isn't, then the entire adult population will become infected.

I didn't make up the math. It's standard epidemiological equations.

If you feel there is good resaerch then send it to me at:
jacksonrichard@sbcglobal.net

and I will retract my statements.


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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100713 - 07/02/04 03:53 PM

Another question I'm seeking an answer to; with say $300 million/year AIDS research spending, why hasn't the horizontal infectivity {B} mitigation rate [in treated patients] been measured? It's a critical parameter for accurate epidemiological studies. Aren't such studies important?

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Rick L. Jackson
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100721 - 07/03/04 02:07 AM

I believe I was able to make my thoughts clearer on my
web site. So I refer any interested parties to:

http://www.agmh.org




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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100730 - 07/03/04 05:40 AM

New studies provide more evidence that AIDS "cocktail treatments," the three drug combinations
containing Protease Inhibitors (PIs), cannot be the significant or sole cause of decreased AIDS
deaths or increased survival in people diagnosed with AIDS.
Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta report that
throughout 1996, the first year in which the drug combinations known as Highly Active
Anti-Retroviral Therapy (HAART) were credited with decreasing AIDS deaths, less than 20% of
HIV positives actually held prescriptions for HAART. Also worth noting is the researchers'
assumption that number of prescriptions written indicate the actual number of people taking the
prescribed drugs and complying with strict dosage requirements.
In a second study, reported in the March 7th issue of The Journal of the American Medical
Association, evidence is presented that treatment containing Protease Inhibitors is no better or
worse than treatment with combinations of nucleoside analogs such as AZT and ddI. In other
words, according to mainstream AIDS researchers, adding a PI to an AZT-ddI combo doesn't
seem to make much difference to "viral load". The patient's health is typically ignored in this
study.
In a third study, in the March 14th issue of The Journal of the American Medical Association, we
learn that improved survival rates attributed to the PI combinations contrast with the researchers'
own statement that the greatest percentage reductions in death among AIDS diagnosed persons
occured in 1995, the year before the new drugs had been approved for general use, and in
1996, the year that less than 20% of HIV positives had prescriptions for PI cocktails.
In other words, the miracles ascribed to the PI combos all happened before just about anyone
had access to Protease Inhibitors. Truly miraculous.

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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100731 - 07/03/04 05:42 AM

This is amazing stuff - and loads and loads of ammo to work with. Finally, the fact that these huge estimates are just ploys to get more funding. Is this the long awaited CDC return of fire against the WHO/UNAIDS? "Two US health officials working on AIDS... speaking on condition of anonymity... " It doesn't take much to read between the lines. I guess the WHO/UNAIDS finally have a worthy adversary on their hands.
 
Read it all at the Boston Globe, at:
 
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2004/06/20/estimates_on_hiv_called_too_high/
 
"  Some specialists raised questions about the estimates in mid-January, after a report on a household survey in Kenya that estimated a 6.7 percent national HIV prevalence rate, compared with the UN's 15 percent estimate in 2002.
Two weeks later in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, at a conference on estimating HIV and AIDS prevalence, epidemiologist Peter D. Ghys raised the question of potentially inflated AIDS rates before several dozen epidemiologists. Ghys estimates HIV and AIDS figures for UNAIDS. On the last slide of his presentation, Ghys wrote, "Should UNAIDS/ WHO estimates be lowered by 25 percent?"
Asked recently about his question, Ghys said he raised it in light of the new Kenyan data: "We already had lowered estimates quite a bit in the previous year, but since then, we've had additional information that came in somewhat lower than our estimates. Maybe it will change again, but it's difficult for us to say, yes, it should be 25 percent or something."  "
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2004/06/20/estimates_on_hiv_called_too_high?pg=3 
"  Chin said he thinks the global rate is inflated by 25 percent to 40 percent, while two US health officials working on AIDS said they think the global numbers may be 50 percent inflated. The two spoke on condition of anonymity.  "
" Rates also were lowered by a third in Zimbabwe because of significant numbers of faulty HIV tests.  "
" In the late 1980s and early 1990s, HIV prevalence in adults aged 15 to 49 in Uganda was estimated as high as 30 percent; now HIV prevalence is estimated at 5 percent. But now many no longer believe the 30 percent figure, raising questions about the true impact of Uganda's much-touted prevention program. Said Ghys: "If we recast our estimates, it wasn't 30 percent, it was maybe 22 or something."


------
Uganda has an annual population growth of well over 3% per year (as to the US's 1% per year) and yet, this is one of the countries that these dire predictions were made about, 20 years ago.


--------

Mbeki questions Aids stats
08/02/2004 21:57 - (SA)
Jan-Jan Joubert and Willem Jordaan
Cape Town - President Thabo Mbeki on Sunday questioned the extent of HIV/Aids deaths, because of the absence of statistics on the causes of death in South Africa.
After Mbeki did not focus on HIV/Aids and Zimbabwe in his State of the Nation address on Friday, he was bombarded with questions on these issues in an interview with the SABC on Sunday.
In his reaction, Mbeki said he would address the two issues in a second State address after the election.
Reacting to a question on his personal roll in government's fight against the pandemic, Mbeki indicated that deputy president Jacob Zuma was handling the matter on government's behalf.
He said that the allocation to HIV/Aids in the budget showed that "few countries were doing as much as South Africa".
When asked whether it wouldn't help if he personally showed more empathy with sufferers of the disease, Mbeki retorted that he had said a lot about the issue and that government's stance on the matter remained unchanged.
"Tuberculosis is also a big problem. My doctors say there is a diabetes epidemic. Why does nobody talk about it? There are many health issues."
When it was put to him that these diseases were treatable while HIV/Aids was not, he said: "No, that is not the reason". Interviewer Redi Diareko quoted statistics of the World Health Organisation and exclaimed: "This is our country about which these findings were made. You are our leader ..." Mbeki responded that the WHO could speak for itself, but that South Africa did not have reliable statistics on causes of deaths. He said he wanted something more than mathematical calculations - information on death certificates.
More at... news24.com/News24/South_Africa/Politics/0,6119,2-7-12_1480787,00.html


-------

Every epidemic disease is now renamed 'AIDS' under the Bangui Definition.
Mortalities (non natural) in S.A. remain at the same 2.2% P.A. that they were BEFORE AIDS. Either every other disease in the region vanished overnight or 'AIDS' is simply the old diseases with a new name. You decide.
-------------
In Africa, the continent supposedly being decimated by
HIV, HIV tests are rarely ever done, so there the idea
that all patients with AIDS are infected with HIV is
based entirely on supposition.
At a WHO conference in the Central African Republic in 1985, U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) introduced the "Bangui Definition" of AIDS in Africa.
The CDC officials later explained, "The definition was reached by consensus, based mostly on the delegates' experience in treating AIDS patients. It has proven a useful tool in determining the extent of the AIDS epidemic in Africa, especially in areas where no testing is available.
It's major components were prolonged fevers (for a month or more), weight loss of 10% or greater, and prolonged diarrhea..."(McCormick, 1996). Where AIDS is diagnosed clinically, large numbers of AIDS patients test negative for HIV. As no HIV testing is required in Africa we have no idea how many AIDS cases there are HIV positive (De ####, 1991; Gilks, 1991; Widy-Wirski, 1988).
_______
Other conditions common in underprivileged and
impoverished communities that are known to cause false
positive results are tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis and leprosy (Burke, 1993; Challakeree, 1993; Johnson, 1998; Kashala, 1994; MacKenzie,1992; Meyer, 1987). In fact, these are the primary health threats in Africa; several million cases of tuberculosis and malaria are reported in Africa each year - more than all the AIDS cases reported in Africa since 1982 (WHO, 1998)*.


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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Is the triple cocktail helping to spread AIDS? new
      #100769 - 07/04/04 05:48 PM

Abstract:

Here's a table for you -- the mortality rate among HIV positive kids in NY,
not diagnosed as "AIDS patients" (read - no drugs) is FOUR Percent.
That is, 96 percent of kids in NY who test HIV pos, but who aren't routinely drugged (by inference as not being labeled "AIDS") are alive and well.
The AIDS group suffers a 60 percent mortality - high, but not 100%, which is what we're told. What would it be minus the AIDS drugs?
NYC HIV/AIDS Statistics Through 2003:
http://www.ci.nyc.ny.us/html/doh/pdf/dires/ped-20031204.pdf
Note that NYC backdates AIDS deaths to 1976, eight years before the HIV test was produced.
Note that the percentage of deaths among AIDS patients (those taking the drugs) is Sixty percent. High, but not 100%.
Note that the percentage of death among HIV positive children (who are not considered AIDS patients) - is Four Percent.
That is -- 96% of all HIV pos. kids in NYC considered HIV pos from 1976(!) onward -- lived. (HIV positive kids are kids who tested pos, but who were not considered AIDS patients, for any number of reasons - background, their particular doctor, etc. As a result of not being considered AIDS patients,they would have been spared the AIDS drugs.)
Note that NYC listed 5 pediatric AIDS deaths (under 13 years old) in 2002.There were at least three alone, possibly four, at ICC.
-- OF important note - when I contacted the NYC coroner's office, I was told that the office doesn't list "AIDS" or "HIV" as a cause of Death in
children - instead they call it "natural causes."
- NY coroner 212 447 2030
Note - minorities constitute the largest number of cases (cumulatively
since beginning of HIV, whenever they say that was) --
Black HIV - 888 - 59%
Hispanic HIV -488 - 32%
White HIV - 81 - 5%
Black AIDS - 1,243 - 57%
Hispanic AIDS - 764 - 35%
White AIDS - 152- 7%
Survivial Status (in 20 plus years) for HIV pos: Dead - 53 (4%) Alive - 1,446 (96%)
Survival Status for AIDS (HIV plus AIDS drugs) Dead: 1,294 (60%) Alive - 878 (40%)

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