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HIV Transmission and Education >> Am I Infected?

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TheVOICE
Unregistered

Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test
      #4741 - 06/01/00 07:39 PM

70 day test results tomorrow. If only I were Canadian, I could feel a lot better about negative results! Actually, if they are negative, I know I'm moving into a really solid area! The statistics are in our favor the longer post-exposure we continue to test negative!

The recent peaceful co-existence that has broken out between the 3 month and 6 month crowds is overdue.

A HIV researcher at CDC told me that hyper-paranoid individuals exposed to HIV can arrive at near absolute certainty with 6-8 weeks by pursuing a comprehensive testing strategy. Negatives on a series of tests at say 7 weeks - ELISA, p24, and PCR - make infection nearly impossible. For example, if at 8 weeks ELISA is 90% accurate, PCR is 98% accurate, and p24 is say 30-40% accurate - the combined negative predictive value of the three tests together puts one at >99.98% certainty [10/100 X 2/100 X 60/100 = 1200/1,000,000 = .0012] Makes sense huh? This strategy might be costly - but one's peace of mind is priceless.

Peace.



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BDG
Unregistered

Re: Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test new
      #4747 - 06/01/00 07:52 PM

Hey, good luck on your results tomorrow! I hope you're negative!

One question though! Why would a Canadian (like myself) feel any better than you will?!? After all, the information you received is from the CDC, which is an American resource! You should feel just as good as I would!

Either way, I got your email. I'll write you back sometime today when I get a chance!



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Jedi Master
Unregistered

The answer is so obvious... new
      #4757 - 06/01/00 09:51 PM

Why would it be great if we were canadians or french, for instance? Because as citizens of those countries we will have faith in our government and their agencies and wouldnt think our government wants to do us any harm telling to wait 3 months and not more. But as a US citizen you have the CDC weight telling you: No, No. You have to wait 6 months. See? What if I was a french and didnt understand a thing of english? I would be celebrating and having a party with jam crepes and crepes suzettes! What if I was a Canadian, living in Ontario, didnt have any access to the Internet and US sites? With a negative 3 month test I would be having a super party celebration. But no, then you realize there is another very reputable agency telling you: 6 MONTHS. See? Wish I was a Canadian, man!



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Mickey
Unregistered

Re: Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test new
      #4759 - 06/01/00 09:56 PM

My friend. Since you have easy access to the CDC hotlines, havent you asked them to tell you more about this thing of the 3 months vs 6 months controversy and why are they practically the only agency in the world telling people to wait 6 months and not 3 months like, say in NYC? or in Canada? Thank you!



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TheVOICE
Unregistered

Re: Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test new
      #4767 - 06/02/00 12:52 AM

I was kidding about the Canadian thing...I think the CDC 6month window is absurd...a relic of the past. In fact, I anticipate the window closing to within 2 months soon. Peace



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Mark 2000
Unregistered

Re: Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test new
      #4777 - 06/02/00 12:44 PM

Actually, I was told a similar thing from the Aids hotline by a nurse. She thinks that eventually the window period could be moved up to 2 months. She says the 12 week spot is the far end of testing spectrum. It is used only to catch the small minority of people who show antibodies late.



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Anonymous
Unregistered

Thanks for the good info. new
      #4778 - 06/02/00 02:28 PM

You always bring us good news and good info! :) I hope that nurse really knows what shes talking about. Anyway, I think we all have to admit that you have made a great effort to gather the much information you could, for your own good and of ours too!



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Rizzo
Unregistered

Re: Statistics of Series Testing & My 70 day test new
      #4782 - 06/02/00 03:13 PM

Again, there *are* people who need up to 3 months, and there are also people who need *beyond* 3 months. That's just the way it is. Nobody can refute the actual studies of needlesticks, plasma, etc., that showed that 2 of 51 people needed 6 months!! This is hard evidence!!



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Mickey
Unregistered

Really do your homework. new
      #4785 - 06/02/00 05:12 PM

Do your homework. That hard evidence that says that states that these people needed EVEN MORE than 6 months. Do you understand RIZZO, more than 6 months. So you gonna live in hell for more time, Ill really suggest you to test at 1 year. Then you can free you mind for being the 0.00000001 person that tested beyond 6 months or the 0.1 that tested beyond 3 months. IF EVER.
Then again, if you are one of those individuals who need more than 3 months you should already know it because that would mean you have a weak inmune system.



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Rizzo
Unregistered

Re: Really do your homework. new
      #4788 - 06/02/00 05:20 PM

Where are we getting this falsity that people with "weak immune systems" are the ones who need more than 3 months? There is NO correlation or pattern whatsoever between delayed testing positive and a weakened immune system. Seriously, if you have this information from a website, where is it, because it's news to me. I think this "weak immune system" stuff is something we've just put together on this board.



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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Really do your homework. new
      #4790 - 06/02/00 05:27 PM

So, then how can you explain that almost 99% of people will test negative by 3 months (in most cases by 2 months) and only 1% after 3 months. Are these 1% just normal cases? So, its very normal to be struck by a thunder or to win the lottery 99% of the time. Well, at least that was what they told me at the CDC.



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Anonymous
Unregistered

Re: Really do your homework. new
      #4799 - 06/02/00 06:32 PM

Rizzo,
We didn't just create the fact that people with a weaker immune system need longer to seroconvert. I've done my own research and heard that from two different sources. However, you should know if you do indeed have an immune problem, because you'd be sick more often or lupus or be like the boy in the bubble.



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