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Impossible
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Reged: 08/19/10
Posts: 68
Black Swan Theory/Event
      #252097 - 09/13/10 03:56 AM

So I saw a question on the safe sex and prevention forums making a reference to the Black Swan Theory. I had to look it up.

"First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."

It's fairly interesting, just like how there are many abstracts for people who don't seroconvert until after 3 months post exposure there has to be an explanation. Whether it's CVID that caused the delayed seroconversion, them being an elite controller, CMV causing significant immunosuppression concomitant with HIV infection., or a uniquely and rarely mutated HIV strain delaying HIV seroconversion with a specific assay(another one was able to pick it up sooner).

if I end up being HIV positive I think I fall under the category of a Black Swan Event, with my 13 week and 17 week negative HIV test results. Everyone and there brother says that a 3 month negative HIV tests is definitive and conclusive as the US CDC states thats the case for people who have sex with individuals of unknown HIV status.

More generally, decision theory, based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside model". For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the September 11 attacks of 2001. A fixed model considers the "known unknowns", but ignores the "unknown unknowns".

A known unknown is something we known we don't know. While an unknown unknown is something we do not know we don't know.

"The term black swan was a Latin expression -- its oldest known reference comes from the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" (6.165).[1] In English, this Latin phrase means "a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan." When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproven. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the phrase's underlying logic, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.
Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[2] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent"

The name Impossible is pretty fitting for me.

If you say I don' have HIV and I turn out to be HIV positive at this point in time it would make your assumption an unknown unknown. Although maybe that would just make it an known unknown.


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