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Odds?
#18518 - 06/18/01 10:16 PM
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Four weeks ago I had unprotected anal intercourse (I was receptive). His HIV status is unknown. Let's assume that he's positive though. I'm not going to go over all the stress I've been going through. The only so-called symptom that I've had has been swollen lymph nodes in the groin area. A friend of mine says that is because I've pushed and felt them so much. I know the risk level is VERY high for what I engaged in. Is my risk any lower because the guy didn't "cum" in me? I know there's still the possibility of "pre-cum", but where do I stand? I plan on getting tested in 8 more weeks. Long wait, but it's the only true way to know. Swollen 'nodes or not. Any opinions or help greatly appreciated!
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Re: Odds?
#18521 - 06/18/01 10:33 PM
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This is from http://www.dph.sf.ca.us/press/pr081199b.htm and it says: (you can find more by doing a search for odds of contracting HIV through unprotected anal sex)
The group's estimated per-contact risk of becoming infected from any one episode of unprotected receptive anal sex with an HIV-positive partner was 0.82%, or around 1 in 120. The statistical method used showed this rate as the average, but Vittinghoff points out that this is intended as a general estimate of the risk involved; this risk figure is imprecise and could actually range anywhere from around 1 in 400 to 1 in 50. The estimated per-contact risk of unprotected receptive anal sex when partners of unknown status were included was calculated at 0.27. This figure is more dependent on the particular geographical and historical moment of the epidemic (in this case, 1992-1994, in San Francisco, Denver and Chicago), because the risk of sex with an
unknown partner is partly dependent on the prevalence of HIV in the population as a whole. Thus, this figure can be thought of a general guide, but might be different in different cities, or at different periods of times.
In another important finding, the study calculated the average per-contact risk of unprotected oral sex with ejaculation as .04%, or around 1 in 2500. The statistical model could not estimate this risk with great precision, however, and the estimate allows the possibility that the actual average risk might be as low as 1 in 10,000 or as high as 1 in 100. The most important element of the finding is that there remains some risk in this practice, and that it does contribute somewhat to the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men.
The study also found some risk from sex which had been reported as protected receptive anal sex. The authors suggest that this finding is probably due, in part, to condom failure that may be underreported or under-recognized. The per-contact risk of protected receptive anal sex was estimated at 1 in 1000.
Can you find out the status of your partner...this might give you a better perspective. You could take a PCR DNA test now and it would buy you 95% peace of mind. You can have it done through these folks anywhere in the US and it's done through Quest which is considered one of the top labs in the country.
800-584-8183
Peace
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Re: Odds?
#18522 - 06/18/01 10:40 PM
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Hi there :)
You seem to have a good handle on your risk assessment, although I do think you may be exaggerating just a bit given the circumstances. Being the receptive partner in anal sex is considered risky behavior, but that *does not guarantee* you will become infected.
First, you do not know the status of your partner, and chances are good that he was negative. If that's the case, then no matter what you did, you would not become infected :)
Second, your odds of contracting HIV from one encounter of unprotected sex are fairly low.
Third, since he did not ejaculate, you were only exposed to pre-seminal fluid, which does contain the HIV virus in infected individuals, but in much lower concentrations. Being exposed to actual semen is much riskier, due to the higher concentration of the virus and the greater quantity of fluid you come in contact with.
Your lymph nodes could very well be swollen because you are poking them too much, as your friend suggested. I can imagine you are highly anxious about your situation, and anything that feels like a suspicious lump or bump is only going to add to your fears. Try to relax - you seem to have things pretty well under control. Getting tested at 12 weeks should put your mind at ease. In the meantime, try to find other activities to divert your attention, or practice some techniques to reduce your stress level. Given what you described, I have a feeling that you are just fine :)
Hang in there!
Copper
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