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ARE THE ODDS INCORRECT???
#158850 - 08/18/05 09:42 PM
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Most of the people, if not all resources, say the chances for getting HIV through insertive vaginal is 5/10000 right??? Well, half of 10000 is 5000, right??? So, realistically speaking, i dont think ANYBODYwould have unprotected sex with a poz or ANY person 5000 times!! Cuz having unprotected sex 5000 times is HALF the probabilites. Well, then how is HIV spreading so quickly!!!! i mean, MOST people i suppose get hiv from having unprotected sex no more than 7-10 times with a person. ive even heard a couple of people get it from first time sex. So really this .5/10000 thing makes no sense. it would mean, LITERALLY, that EVERYONE who is hiv-infected is reaaaaally unlucky because they are under the odds. Lets be realistic people, the odds are much lower than that. In my opinion, the risk for getting hiv in unprotected insertive vaginal is 1/10 AT MOST. I really want to see wut u guys have to say.
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_tylox99_
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Regular
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Reged: 07/14/05
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Posts: 38
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Loc: MA
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5/10000 does not mean one-half. 5/10 is one-half. it means on per 10000 occurences there will be 5 postivie infections. You could also 1 out of 2000 by the odds you stated.
You could read it as 5 out of 10 thousand.
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Words are, of course, the most potent drug used by mankind.
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That is exactly my point, im afraid u did not understand. 5000 occurences is one half of 10000. so 5000 times of unprotected sex is 50% chances of having hiv with a poz person. so, 5/10000 is 0.05%!!!! MY POINT IS: People are having unprotected sex with infected people no more than 10 times, and most of them are getting infected. Even first timers are being infected!!!! So, there, 5/10000 CANNOT be correct or hiv would not be permeating so drastically.
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I believe that everything depends on the viral load, with greater viral load, greater probabilities of infecting itself.
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Sorry, Anonymous....your maths is fundamentally flawed in this instance.
First of all, the statistic indicates that if you have a single encounter with an HIV+ person, your chance of getting it is 5/10,000. Having sex 5000 times with an unprotected person doesnt give you a 50% of getting HIV. 5/10,000 equates to 1/2,000....therefore if you have sex with an HIV+ person 5,000 times, statistically you have a 250% chance of getting it.
Secondly, 5/10,000 is not 0.05%, but rather its 0.0005%.
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Sorry, I meant to say "Having sex 5000 times with an HIV+ person........." and not "Having sex 5000 times with an unprotected person."
Apologies.
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SteveR
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Legend
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Reged: 07/19/05
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Posts: 576
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I've never bought into this discussion of numerical odds. There are way too many factors to make it a serious statistical science. It all depends on viral load, the health of both partners, the presence of other STDs, etc.
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debtex
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Reged: 03/21/05
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to the original poster.....I think you are thinking it too literal that the occurance is 5 out of 10,000. like tylox has stated...it means out of every possible hiv contact with EVERYONE'S sexual occurances (not just that ONE person).
depending on alot of factors.....for one, the viral load amt., your bodies immune system (some people, like majic johnsons wife for instance) are fortunate to "miss" the virus (i'm sure in the many years she was with him....they have had sex about 5000 times), and situations alike.
they are not saying you would need to have sex 5000 times w/ an infected individual in order to get it. it could be the first time.....or it could be the 50th time.
I think you are looking at the odds too literlly. I know the person who infected me....i did not get it the first few times, but after about 6 months of sex w/ him....this was when I contracted it.
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