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Statistic: Acquiring HIV from anal sex and after PEP

Feb 16, 2006

Hi Dr, I have a quick question for you, and I have your website almost memorized to come up with this statistic. Gay male here, 19 yr old student, who received receptive anal sex from a positive top, the condom broke. The top is very healthy, he has never taken drugs and his viral count is undetectable, etc. He didnt ejaculate in me and pulled out as soon as the condom broke. I went on PEP with Combivir 30 hrs post-exposure and I religiously followed that routine for 28 days. Now my chances of getting HIV from bottoming-unprotected with a positive top are .5% according to what I have read on your forum. After PEP my chances of becoming positive are 19% and 81% I will be negative. 19% of 0.5% who do become positive from unprotected receptive anal sex is .095%, which means there is a 99.905% chance that I will be ok and will not catch the virus. Those are pretty good odds. My 3 month tests are coming up. Anxious. And by the way, I think you are amazing for having HIV and offering us whining Neanderthals support over our worries. You have my support and respect Sir.

Response from Dr. Frascino


Combining different estimated-risk statistics across different baseline parameters is not really all that accurate. However, I do agree your risk of acquiring HIV would be extremely slight considering 1) the very brief exposure, 2) the undetectable viral load of your partner and 3) taking a full course of PEP.

By the way, I do not consider you a Neanderthal. I know many Republicans who qualify, but not you. You were using a condom and you took PEP shortly after the accidental exposure due to a condom failure. That's being very responsible in my book. Accidents can happen to anyone, or so I heard from a "Vice President Firearms Mishaps Analyst" on Fox news.

Good luck. Say, do you think there is any chance Scalia will go hunting with Cheney again any time soon??? Suddenly that seems like such a good idea.

Dr. Bob

multiple hiv + exposures
Rapid test

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