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Statistical Hell in Paradise

Sep 12, 2005

Hi Dr. Bob,

First of all, I agree with many of your fans that you are one cool dude with a sense of humor that in unrivaled. I like checking out all the different info and reader questions just to see how you answer them. You are a riot!

Doc, I had an encounter with a Chinese bar-girl here on Guam. She stuck her tongue in my mouth a number of occasions before I was given unprotected isertive oral sex. I asked for a condom, but she seemed to think that this was apparently safe (safe for her, that's for sure---at least I knew my status). I don't recall any mouth irregularities on her part. I do remember looking down and seeing quite a little reservoir of apparent saliva (or pre-cum?)in the tip of my jolly roger. She didn't take my load, but she gave quite a suck after she cleaned me off. I did check your archives for stats, but I guess I am still a bit confused. If my "theoretic" chances of HIV infection (if she was indeed positive) were 0.05 for 10,000 exposures, then what are the actual odds for one encounter? If it were 10,000 times, then it's 1 in 500, right? So 1 time is 1/10,000th of 0.05%, right? So is my math correct that I have a theortetical chance of becoming HIV + is of 0.000005% for a 1-time occurence? Help me out with this doc. Much obliged and donation guaranteed if you would give this question some resolution.

God Bless,


Response from Dr. Frascino

Hello Guam Guy,

Regarding your experience with "me so horny, me suck you long time" bar girl, actually there are no "actual odds for one encounter." All we have is an estimated statistical risk for acquisition of HIV, which assumes exposure to an infected source. For unprotected insertive oral with a partner of unknown status, the best we can say is that the per-act estimated risk would be less than 0.5 per 10,000 exposures. In other words, your risk becomes so vanishingly small that it is only theoretical (rather than an absolute number). Personally, from an HIV perspective, I do not feel you have anything to worry about. However, if you want absolute "resolution," get an HIV test at the three-month mark.

Stay well.

Dr. Bob

Injecting drug user - very worried
Very concerned about contact with someone at school

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