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Risk Assessment
Aug 24, 2005

Dear Dr. Frascino,

situation is this: I was the active partner with subsequently known positive man, broken condom after less than a min anal sex (kept checking). Went to local hospital and obtained Combivir within 4 hours of event, then just outside the 72 hour window found out that partner has some resitance to AZT, so went back to clinic and switched to a new cocktail (Abacavir / Viread / Kaletra). In the meanwhile I have been advised by Dr. Henry from the HIV Side Effects Forum that the side effects that I have experienced are just that, and not seroconversion (I understand that there are no guarantees here!).

I am nearly at the end of 4 week PEP. What are the risks of seroconversion after this history outline of known HIV exposure and PEP?

Please advise, many thanks and I appreciate your efforts in keeping us informed. Great work, thanks for helping out.

Response from Dr. Frascino

Hi,

The estimated per-act risk for acquiring HIV through unprotected insertive anal sex with an HIV-positive partner is 6.5 per 10,000 exposures. Certainly your estimated risk would decrease due to PEP; however, there are no specific estimated-risk statistics available that quantify that specific decrease. Assuming you took your PEP meds as directed, you've done everything you possibly could to prevent infection. The statistical odds are all in your favor. The only thing you can do now is wait for your test result. I'll send you my best good-luck karma that your test will indeed be negative. Hopefully the next time you write you'll be yelling WOO-HOO!

Good luck.

Dr. Bob



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