|Cough three weeks later
Mar 10, 2004
Dr Bob, I'll keep this short as I know you are busy.
After reading through many of your posts I have gone from freaked-out to slightly worried.
I had a contact with a female sex worker 1 month ago. I know receiving oral is very low risk, however during it she did finger my rectum, and she had rubbed her clit lightly a few minutes before. Later that night I noticed she had drawn blood which is when I freaked.
CDC said liklihood of transmission is very low, as are parralels I've looked up for WSW transmission.
I developed a cough a 3 weeks after, which has gone on for over a week. Diareha one time during this week as well plus a slight tenderness in my lymph nodes in my neck. I got tested at 25 days (Negative, thank God) and plan on re-testing at month 3.
I know average detectable levels happen at 25 days. My questions are: 1. Is 25 days the average or the mean? if it's the mean, what of people have converted at day 25?
2. If day 25 is 50 accurate of a true reading and Day 90 99.99 accurate, can I be 75 certain if I re-test at week 6 or some other day you specify. (how certain can I be before te full 90 days)
Vowing not to waste money on too much re-testing I'm going to donate equvilent for any tests I take :)
Dr Bob, this forum helps more people than you can ever know, please keep up the great work!
| Response from Dr. Frascino
I totally agree with the CDC's assessment of your risk. I also agree that you should ratchet down your anxiety level from freaked-out to slightly worried. Your 25-day negative test is encouraging, but not definitive. I agree the three-month test would give you a definitive result in this extremely low potential risk scenario.
Next, regarding the average versus the mean and your risk percentage ratios, what are you? A math geek? Sorry guy, this type of statistical over-analysis is nothing more than mental masturbation, because a number of variables are not quantifiable or even identifiable.
The best I can offer is that your three-month test result would be considered definitive.
Thank you for your willingness to donate to my foundation. I hope knowing that those precious dollars are saving lives, rather than being wasted on and frankly unhelpful re-testing will give you some inner peace. On behalf of those whose lives will be touched by your gift, please accept my heartfelt thanks. Good luck.
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