Apr 13, 2012
dear dr, please see the link which says HIV/AIDS, depression and IHD are going to be the leading cause of death in 2030. my question is that, with so many newer better medicines how can HIV/AIDS be the leading cause of death in 2030 where a paper in lancet says a person starting ART at remarks.the age of 20 years can expect to live another 49.4 years? thanks.
Response from Dr. Young
Hello and thanks for posting.
I'm not sure exactly which paper that you're referencing.
I don't expect that traditional AIDS-related complications will be the leading cause of death among those living with HIV. As for life expectancy, there are many references to this- overall, they point to dramatically increased life expectancy, with numbers that approach (or are) the normal range. My statements (see below too) are based on people who have entered into, and are retained in HIV care and have access to HIV medications.
As a caveat, remember that estimates of complications and survival can be based on different populations of people. This can be very much affected by large numbers of people in populations who may not know their HIV status or present to care very late, with advanced HIV/AIDS complications. Clearly, such people are at much greater risk of death and shortened life expectancy. In population-based estimates, these under-diagnosed and late-stage presenters can significantly influence the averages.
I hope that is helpful, BY
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