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Causality,.. Apr 2, 2001 I realize you are not a statistician (I am) but I am wondering if I can make the following argument: If a person tests negative PCR at 2 1/2 months the chances the test is wrong are 1. If the same person takes an Elisa at the same time and that is negative the chances the test is wrong are ROUGHLY 10. Is it fair to argue then that the highest possible probability that the person is infected at that point are .1 (1 * 10) ? This argument works if there is no causality between viral load and time to serocenversion; that is, if there is no relation between whether a person's viral load is detectable and how long they take to serocenvert. Is there any such causality?, Do you agree with my reasoning? |
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| Response from Dr. Holodniy
 I disagree. Testing with either modality at 2 1/2 months will have almost equal results. A negative predictive value will be very high for either test. | ||
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